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This book develops the use of Monte Carlo methods in finance and it also uses simulation as a vehicle for presenting models and ideas from financial engineering. It divides roughly into three parts. The first part develops the fundamentals of Monte Carlo methods, the foundations of derivatives pricing, and the implementation of several of the most important models used in financial engineering. The next part describes techniques for improving simulation accuracy and efficiency. The final third of the book addresses special topics: estimating price sensitivities, valuing American options, and measuring market risk and credit risk in financial portfolios.

The most important prerequisite is familiarity with the mathematical tools used to specify and analyze continuous-time models in finance, in particular the key ideas of stochastic calculus. Prior exposure to the basic principles of option pricing is useful but not essential.

The book is aimed at graduate students in financial engineering, researchers in Monte Carlo simulation, and practitioners implementing models in industry.

This paperback edition is a reprint of the 2001 Springer edition.

This book provides a self-contained and up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared. Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topics and a moderate prerequisite for the reader, this book should be of interest to a broad audience of quantitative researchers such as computational biologists, computer scientists, econometricians, engineers, probabilists, and statisticians. It can also be used as the textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods. Many problems discussed in the alter chapters can be potential thesis topics for masters’ or Ph.D. students in statistics or computer science departments.

Jun Liu is Professor of Statistics at Harvard University, with a courtesy Professor appointment at Harvard Biostatistics Department. Professor Liu was the recipient of the 2002 COPSS Presidents' Award, the most prestigious one for statisticians and given annually by five leading statistical associations to one individual under age 40. He was selected as a Terman Fellow by Stanford University in 1995, as a Medallion Lecturer by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS) in 2002, and as a Bernoulli Lecturer by the International Bernoulli Society in 2004. He was elected to the IMS Fellow in 2004 and Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2005. He and co-workers have published more than 130 research articles and book chapters on Bayesian modeling and computation, bioinformatics, genetics, signal processing, stochastic dynamic systems, Monte Carlo methods, and theoretical statistics.

"An excellent survey of current Monte Carlo methods. The applications amply demonstrate the relevance of this approach to modern computing. The book is highly recommended." (Mathematical Reviews)

"This book provides comprehensive coverage of Monte Carlo methods, and in the process uncovers and discusses commonalities among seemingly disparate techniques that arose in various areas of application. … The book is well organized; the flow of topics follows a logical development. … The coverage is up-to-date and comprehensive, and so the book is a good resource for people conducting research on Monte Carlo methods. … The book would be an excellent supplementary text for a course in scientific computing … ." (SIAM Review)

"The strength of this book is in bringing together advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods developed in many disciplines. … Throughout the book are examples of techniques invented, or reinvented, in different fields that may be applied elsewhere. … Those interested in using MC to solve difficult problems will find many ideas, collected from a variety of disciplines, and references for further study." (Technometrics)

Computational techniques based on simulation have now become an essential part of the statistician's toolbox. It is thus crucial to provide statisticians with a practical understanding of those methods, and there is no better way to develop intuition and skills for simulation than to use simulation to solve statistical problems. Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R covers the main tools used in statistical simulation from a programmer's point of view, explaining the R implementation of each simulation technique and providing the output for better understanding and comparison. While this book constitutes a comprehensive treatment of simulation methods, the theoretical justification of those methods has been considerably reduced, compared with Robert and Casella (2004). Similarly, the more exploratory and less stable solutions are not covered here.

This book does not require a preliminary exposure to the R programming language or to Monte Carlo methods, nor an advanced mathematical background. While many examples are set within a Bayesian framework, advanced expertise in Bayesian statistics is not required. The book covers basic random generation algorithms, Monte Carlo techniques for integration and optimization, convergence diagnoses, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, including Metropolis {Hastings and Gibbs algorithms, and adaptive algorithms. All chapters include exercises and all R programs are available as an R package called mcsm. The book appeals to anyone with a practical interest in simulation methods but no previous exposure. It is meant to be useful for students and practitioners in areas such as statistics, signal processing, communications engineering, control theory, econometrics, finance and more. The programming parts are introduced progressively to be accessible to any reader.

This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques, including convergence results and applications to tracking, guidance, automated target recognition, aircraft navigation, robot navigation, econometrics, financial modeling, neural networks, optimal control, optimal filtering, communications, reinforcement learning, signal enhancement, model averaging and selection, computer vision, semiconductor design, population biology, dynamic Bayesian networks, and time series analysis. This will be of great value to students, researchers and practitioners, who have some basic knowledge of probability.

Arnaud Doucet received the Ph. D. degree from the University of Paris-XI Orsay in 1997. From 1998 to 2000, he conducted research at the Signal Processing Group of Cambridge University, UK. He is currently an assistant professor at the Department of Electrical Engineering of Melbourne University, Australia. His research interests include Bayesian statistics, dynamic models and Monte Carlo methods.

Nando de Freitas obtained a Ph.D. degree in information engineering from Cambridge University in 1999. He is presently a research associate with the artificial intelligence group of the University of California at Berkeley. His main research interests are in Bayesian statistics and the application of on-line and batch Monte Carlo methods to machine learning.

Neil Gordon obtained a Ph.D. in Statistics from Imperial College, University of London in 1993. He is with the Pattern and Information Processing group at the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency in the United Kingdom. His research interests are in time series, statistical data analysis, and pattern recognition with a particular emphasis on target tracking and missile guidance.

Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences.

The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including:

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio method and the screening method

The score function method for sensitivity analysis

The stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization

The cross-entropy method to rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization

Application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems, with an emphasis on the parametric minimum cross-entropy method

An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, with more difficult sections and exercises marked accordingly for advanced readers. A generous sampling of applied examples is positioned throughout the book, emphasizing various areas of application, and a detailed appendix presents an introduction to exponential families, a discussion of the computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, and sample MATLAB® programs.

Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.

Major changes from the previous edition:

·         More examples with discussion of computational details in chapters on Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

·         Recent developments in MCMC, including reversible jump, slice sampling, bridge sampling, path sampling, multiple-try, and delayed rejection

·         Discussion of computation using both R and WinBUGS

·         Additional exercises and selected solutions within the text, with all data sets and software available for download from the Web

·         Sections on spatial models and model adequacy

The self-contained text units make MCMC accessible to scientists in other disciplines as well as statisticians. The book will appeal to everyone working with MCMC techniques, especially research and graduate statisticians and biostatisticians, and scientists handling data and formulating models. The book has been substantially reinforced as a first reading of material on MCMC and, consequently, as a textbook for modern Bayesian computation and Bayesian inference courses.

"Johnathan Mun's book is a sparkling jewel in my finance library. Mun demonstrates a deep understanding of the underlying mathematical theory in his ability to reduce complex concepts to lucid explanations and applications. For this reason, he's my favorite writer in this field."
—Janet Tavakoli, President, Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. and author of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Structured Finance

"A must-read for product portfolio managers . . . it captures the risk exposure of strategic investments, and provides management with estimates of potential outcomes and options for risk mitigation."
—Rafael E. Gutierrez, Executive Director of Strategic Marketing and Planning, Seagate Technology, Inc.

"Once again, Dr. Mun has created a 'must-have, must-read' book for anyone interested in the practical application of risk analysis. Other books speak in academic generalities, or focus on one area of risk application. [This book] gets to the heart of the matter with applications for every area of risk analysis. You have a real option to buy almost any book?you should exercise your option and get this one!"
—Glenn Kautt, MBA, CFP, EA, President and Chairman, The Monitor Group, Inc.

Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

Offering a unique balance between applications and calculations, Monte Carlo Methods and Models in Finance and Insurance incorporates the application background of finance and insurance with the theory and applications of Monte Carlo methods. It presents recent methods and algorithms, including the multilevel Monte Carlo method, the statistical Romberg method, and the Heath–Platen estimator, as well as recent financial and actuarial models, such as the Cheyette and dynamic mortality models.

The authors separately discuss Monte Carlo techniques, stochastic process basics, and the theoretical background and intuition behind financial and actuarial mathematics, before bringing the topics together to apply the Monte Carlo methods to areas of finance and insurance. This allows for the easy identification of standard Monte Carlo tools and for a detailed focus on the main principles of financial and insurance mathematics. The book describes high-level Monte Carlo methods for standard simulation and the simulation of stochastic processes with continuous and discontinuous paths. It also covers a wide selection of popular models in finance and insurance, from Black–Scholes to stochastic volatility to interest rate to dynamic mortality.

Through its many numerical and graphical illustrations and simple, insightful examples, this book provides a deep understanding of the scope of Monte Carlo methods and their use in various financial situations. The intuitive presentation encourages readers to implement and further develop the simulation methods.